Commentary as of 12/31/2011
During the past quarter investment markets calmed down and domestic economic activity appeared to be expanding at a moderate rate in the midst of some apparent slowing in global economic growth.
Recent gains in manufacturing and consumer sentiment suggest that so far the U.S. is withstanding the economic crisis in Europe. Employment conditions continue to improve with the unemployment rate dropping to the lowest level in almost three years.
After both of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings in the fourth quarter, the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the federal funds rate near zero. Inflation has moderated in recent months, and is expected to continue to ease. The Fed reiterated
their plan to keep short term rates low at least through mid 2013.
Treasury yields were mostly range bound for the period, finishing just slightly lower, with most parts of the yield curve being virtually unchanged. Minimal change in spread levels (i.e., risk premium over Treasuries) left most fixed income sectors providing
coupon-like returns.
The Bond Fund’s performance slightly lagged the Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond index in the fourth quarter. An overweight position in Agency debentures relative to its benchmark, along with specific mortgage-backed positions, hindered
performance. The portfolio’s municipal bond exposure and an underweight in Treasuries contributed positively to performance.
In our opinion the pace of economic activity is expected to pick up slowly in 2012, supported by accommodative monetary policy and improvements in business and consumer sentiment. However, we believe the events of the Eurozone will continue
to dominate the markets during the first quarter of 2012.
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