During the past quarter investment markets calmed down and domestic economic activity appeared to be expanding at a moderate rate in the midst of some apparent slowing in global economic growth.
Recent gains in manufacturing and consumer sentiment suggest that so far the U.S. is withstanding the economic crisis in Europe. Employment conditions continue to improve with the unemployment rate dropping to the lowest level in almost three years.
After both of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings in the fourth quarter, the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the federal funds rate near zero. Inflation has moderated in recent months, and is expected to continue to ease. The Fed reiterated their plan to keep short term rates low at least through mid 2013.
The Treasury sector outperformed both agency debentures and non-agency mortgage-backed securities. Treasury yields on the short end of the yield curve were nearly unchanged for the quarter, with five year Treasury yields declining the most.
The Short-Term Government Fund’s performance for the fourth quarter lagged the Citigroup 1-5 Year Treasury/Government Sponsored Index for the period. An overweight in Agency debentures and a shorter duration relative to its benchmark hindered performance.
In our opinion the pace of economic activity is expected to pick up slowly in 2012, supported by accommodative monetary policy and improvements in business and consumer sentiment. However, we believe the events of the Eurozone will continue to dominate the markets during the first quarter of 2012.
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